RBI monetary policy ‘aggressive: Chief Economist, HDFC Bank

Mumbai: Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank while reacting over the monetary policy announced by RBI said that the policy announcement was aggressive and moves beyond just “frontloading” of interest rate increases. The central bank seemed far more concerned about inflation-reflected in its upward revision in its inflation forecast by 100bps to 6.7% and relatively more sanguine on domestic growth impulses.
“Clearly the RBI is concerned about the broad-based nature of the increase in inflation and the risk of the second-round impact on inflation expectations. Therefore, the policy rate is likely to be raised well beyond the pre-pandemic level, close to 6% by fiscal year-end.”
The Chief Economist said that bond yields saw an initial relief rally post the policy announcement as the rate hike was broadly priced-in and the fear of a larger rate increase or a CRR hike has been alleviated. “With elevated oil prices and rising global yields, this rally is likely to be short-lived and yields could march north yet again.”